Michael's 2006-2010 Papers

PAPER at the 2009 European Wind Energy Conference, 16 – 19 March, Marseille, France

I presented my paper, The Effect that President Obama and the new Congress Will Have on the American Wind Market, at the 2009 European Wind Energy Conference,  Marseille, France.

The wind market is currently doing well in the US. Prior wind policies resulted in 11.6 GW of total capacity by 2006. By year end 2008, total US wind capacity reached 25.2 GW (1.5% of US 2008 GWh/yr) and the US became the number one country in wind capacity. A July 2008 US Department of Energy (DOE) study projected wind at 20% (305 GW) of US generating capacity by 2030. This would require 12.7 GW/yr average increase (simple rate of growth) in installed capacity with an aggregate average cost of $25.9 (20.4 €) billion/yr (constant $/€) for wind plants (not including transmission or supply chain). The paper first presents a list of wind friendly US policy drivers. The paper then presents an up-to-date (17 March 2009) analysis of the effect that the wind friendly Obama Administration [and the new 111th US Congress] is having on US wind market supply and demand. Wind friendly supply side and demand side policies are being drafted and implemented as this paper is being written. The US credit crunch is also having an effect on supply. Due to the credit crunch and time lag between Obama policy implementation and effect, the paper forecasts that in 2009 6,050 MW of wind plants will be built. This will be a (28%) decline in new installed capacity. Total installed wind capacity at the end of 2009 will be 31,226 MW. This will a 24% increase in total installed capacity. The 2009 installed capacity cost is expected to be $1,830,000/MW (1,446,528 €/MW) which will be a (10%)decline from the 2008 installed capacity cost of $2,033,979/MW (1,607,253 €/MW).

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